Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FORTH prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-01-12 3.809504 4.181378 4.618376 5.183672 5.919144 6.883816 8.330378
2025-01-19 3.283414 3.720634 4.274770 5.066621 6.251462 8.157296 12.194287
2025-01-26 3.067191 3.561658 4.227362 5.265084 7.049392 10.733391 25.966933
2025-02-02 2.952575 3.501847 4.282423 5.606437 8.262847 16.170099 NaN
2025-02-09 2.794634 3.354600 4.175888 5.644132 8.926679 22.912422 NaN
2025-02-16 2.675358 3.245086 4.104330 5.717092 9.745247 40.000461 NaN
2025-02-23 2.513726 3.057377 3.883379 5.454483 9.507329 48.585525 NaN
2025-03-02 2.427041 2.972726 3.817839 5.482842 10.184141 257.370324 NaN
2025-03-09 2.343836 2.886018 3.738030 5.463536 10.722855 NaN NaN
2025-03-16 2.248874 2.774807 3.606034 5.308116 10.665727 NaN NaN
2025-03-23 2.211820 2.749530 3.617318 5.469069 12.104392 NaN NaN
2025-03-30 2.122809 2.638220 3.469433 5.240622 11.557334 NaN NaN
2025-04-06 2.031768 2.522801 3.312693 4.987300 10.860217 NaN NaN
2025-04-13 1.966542 2.445335 3.218675 4.871614 10.827435 NaN NaN
2025-04-20 1.947317 2.438677 3.248474 5.052457 12.596363 NaN NaN
2025-04-27 1.943717 2.456142 3.322825 5.363974 16.221814 NaN NaN
2025-05-04 1.907713 2.419104 3.292923 5.398234 17.989490 NaN NaN
2025-05-11 1.877602 2.390057 3.275607 5.464562 20.680579 NaN NaN
2025-05-18 1.818189 2.310489 3.156953 5.225377 18.628358 NaN NaN
2025-05-25 1.789250 2.280147 3.131259 5.251261 20.738148 NaN NaN
2025-06-01 1.757792 2.244323 3.092635 5.233641 22.372193 NaN NaN
2025-06-08 1.716053 2.190026 3.015314 5.091566 21.333793 NaN NaN
2025-06-15 1.704245 2.184954 3.033489 5.238691 27.679851 NaN NaN